Gage Jump
elite tier · 5.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
2.13
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.34
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.64
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.37
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.08
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0010
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0008
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
4
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/12/26 | 6.18 | 2 | 4.18 |
| 9/6/26 | 6.37 | 7 | 0.63 |
| 8/31/26 | 6.41 | 2 | 4.41 |
| 8/25/26 | 6.37 | 9 | 2.63 |
| 8/8/26 | 6.00 | 11 | 5.00 |
| 8/2/26 | 6.35 | 5 | 1.35 |
| 7/28/26 | 6.32 | 7 | 0.68 |
| 7/22/26 | 6.22 | 5 | 1.22 |
| 7/17/26 | 6.06 | 8 | 1.94 |
| 7/11/26 | 6.80 | 7 | 0.20 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.78 | 1 | 4.78 |
| 6/29/26 | 6.16 | 5 | 1.16 |
| 6/24/26 | 7.00 | 9 | 2.00 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.75 | 7 | 1.25 |
| 6/12/26 | 6.57 | 6 | 0.57 |
| 6/7/26 | 5.08 | 3 | 2.08 |