Look up a pitcher
Bets
34
20W · 14L
Win Rate
58.8%
43.0% break-even (+133)
ROI
+23.89%
profit / wager
P&L
+26.01u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.57
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
+0.46
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0010 · 4 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
13W-4L
Win Rate
76%▲ 35pp
+117 avg
MAE
1.08▼ 0.87
P&L
+32.51u▲ 39.01u
UNDER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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OVER34 bets
Record
20W-14L
Win Rate
59%
+133 avg
P&L
+26.01u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.1, α=0.001) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | DET | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -175 | 12.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +2.01u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | BOS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -175 | 12.7% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.99u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | BOS | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +116 | 14.6% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +3.16u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +238 | 14.9% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +5.05u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -200 | 20.8% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +3.13u | BetMGM |
| 7/22/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +110 | 27.5% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +5.77u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -295 | 11.5% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +1.53u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -135 | 15.5% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +2.70u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +155 | 17.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +4.44u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +307 | 15.5% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +6.32u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +106 | 19.3% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +3.97u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/11/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +215 | 7.5% | 6.0 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.35u | Bovada |
| 7/11/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -205 | 14.3% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.13u | BetRivers |
| 6/29/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -150 | 14.3% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +2.38u | BetRivers |
| 6/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 11.3% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +1.54u | BetMGM |
| 6/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -125 | 14.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +2.66u | BetMGM |
| 6/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +165 | 15.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +4.11u | BetMGM |
| 6/24/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +340 | 13.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +6.07u | Fanatics |
| 6/12/26 | COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -190 | 13.7% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.10u | BetMGM |
| 6/12/26 | COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +105 | 16.0% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +3.29u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +110 | 13.4% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.56u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +214 | 13.1% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -1.92u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +250 | 30.8% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -4.31u | Bovada |
| 7/22/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +550 | 27.5% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -3.25u | Bovada |
| 7/5/26 | MIA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -159 | 7.7% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.99u | BetRivers |
| 7/5/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +133 | 9.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.60u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +267 | 8.3% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.15u | DraftKings |
| 6/29/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +145 | 17.5% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.96u | Bovada |
| 6/29/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +310 | 17.5% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.31u | Bovada |
| 6/12/26 | COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +225 | 18.0% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -2.60u | Bovada |
| 6/12/26 | COL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +475 | 16.3% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -1.97u | Bovada |
| 6/7/26 | @HOU | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +125 | 31.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -5.59u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | @HOU | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +600 | 43.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -5.10u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | @HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +1000 | 30.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.39u | Fanatics |