Gavin Williams
elite tier · 6.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
22
MAE
3.32
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.61
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.88
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.71
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.83
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0310
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0431
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 6.01 | 4 | 2.01 |
| 9/20/26 | 6.27 | 9 | 2.73 |
| 9/14/26 | 5.55 | 7 | 1.45 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.81 | 11 | 5.19 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.81 | 13 | 7.19 |
| 8/25/26 | 6.26 | 3 | 3.26 |
| 8/8/26 | 6.44 | 7 | 0.56 |
| 8/2/26 | 4.80 | 10 | 5.20 |
| 7/28/26 | 6.94 | 12 | 5.06 |
| 7/23/26 | 5.92 | 11 | 5.08 |
| 7/18/26 | 6.55 | 11 | 4.45 |
| 7/17/26 | 6.60 | 0 | 6.60 |
| 7/9/26 | 5.76 | 1 | 4.76 |
| 7/3/26 | 6.19 | 6 | 0.19 |
| 6/28/26 | 6.23 | 6 | 0.23 |
| 6/22/26 | 6.16 | 8 | 1.84 |
| 6/17/26 | 6.36 | 4 | 2.36 |
| 6/8/26 | 7.42 | 5 | 2.42 |
| 6/7/26 | 6.95 | 2 | 4.95 |
| 6/3/26 | 7.11 | 6 | 1.11 |
| 5/27/26 | 5.95 | 4 | 1.95 |
| 5/22/26 | 6.57 | 11 | 4.43 |