Bets
6
3W · 3L
Win Rate
50.0%
3/6
ROI
+59.01%
profit / wager
P&L
+5.82u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
2.19
Ks · n=6
Bias
+2.19
over-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0247 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
3W-3L
Win Rate
50%
MAE
2.19
P&L
+5.82u
UNDER3 bets
Record
3W-0L
Win Rate
100%
P&L
+8.36u
OVER3 bets
Record
0W-3L
Win Rate
0%
P&L
-2.54u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.7, α=0.025) · 80% range 4-10 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/27/26 | WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 13.1% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | WIN | +4.14u | BetRivers |
| 5/27/26 | WAS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +107 | 13.1% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | WIN | +2.71u | BetRivers |
| 5/27/26 | WAS | UNDER | 7.5 | ALT | -190 | 9.9% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 4 | WIN | +1.51u | BetRivers |
| 6/8/26 | NYY | OVER | 10.5 | ALT | +1120 | 6.2% | 7.4 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -0.67u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | NYY | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +283 | 7.1% | 7.4 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -0.96u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | NYY | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +576 | 7.7% | 7.4 | 4–10 | 5 | LOSS | -0.90u | DraftKings |