George Kirby
good tier · 5.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
1.95
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.72
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.61
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.07
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.78
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0532
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0741
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.46 | 1 | 4.46 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.59 | 5 | 0.59 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.79 | 5 | 0.79 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.70 | 5 | 0.70 |
| 8/31/26 | 5.80 | 2 | 3.80 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.56 | 9 | 3.44 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.92 | 0 | 5.92 |
| 8/2/26 | 5.13 | 3 | 2.13 |
| 7/27/26 | 5.30 | 3 | 2.30 |
| 7/20/26 | 5.88 | 6 | 0.12 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.20 | 7 | 1.80 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.84 | 7 | 1.16 |
| 6/23/26 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 6/17/26 | 4.97 | 5 | 0.03 |
| 6/10/26 | 5.53 | 10 | 4.47 |
| 6/3/26 | 5.26 | 5 | 0.26 |
| 5/29/26 | 5.00 | 4 | 1.00 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.01 | 3 | 2.01 |