Gerrit Cole
good tier · 5.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
2.15
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.04
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.74
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.05
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.12
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.15 | 1 | 4.15 |
| 9/18/26 | 5.24 | 6 | 0.76 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.92 | 4 | 0.92 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.22 | 1 | 4.22 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.22 | 5 | 0.22 |
| 8/27/26 | 5.19 | 5 | 0.19 |
| 8/8/26 | 4.85 | 9 | 4.15 |
| 8/2/26 | 5.06 | 1 | 4.06 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.15 | 7 | 1.85 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.64 | 11 | 5.36 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.59 | 1 | 3.59 |
| 7/8/26 | 3.97 | 6 | 2.03 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.68 | 7 | 2.32 |
| 6/27/26 | 4.47 | 5 | 0.53 |
| 6/22/26 | 5.58 | 5 | 0.58 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.52 | 6 | 1.48 |
| 6/9/26 | 3.85 | 4 | 0.15 |