Grant Holmes
avg tier · 4.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
2.01
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.19
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.49
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.51
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.56
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0390
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0571
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
42
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19/26 | 4.38 | 4 | 0.38 |
| 9/13/26 | 3.91 | 0 | 3.91 |
| 9/7/26 | 3.69 | 6 | 2.31 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.04 | 1 | 4.04 |
| 8/28/26 | 4.93 | 3 | 1.93 |
| 8/9/26 | 5.68 | 2 | 3.68 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 7/30/26 | 5.04 | 4 | 1.04 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.52 | 5 | 0.52 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.53 | 2 | 2.53 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.34 | 5 | 0.34 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.37 | 2 | 2.37 |
| 6/22/26 | 5.13 | 4 | 1.13 |
| 6/9/26 | 5.40 | 2 | 3.40 |
| 6/3/26 | 5.60 | 4 | 1.60 |
| 5/29/26 | 5.30 | 5 | 0.30 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.29 | 10 | 4.71 |