Grayson Rodriguez
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
2.33
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.05
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.68
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.93
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.29
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
49
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 4.62 | 3 | 1.62 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.84 | 2 | 2.84 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.97 | 4 | 0.97 |
| 9/7/26 | 4.39 | 3 | 1.39 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.82 | 2 | 2.82 |
| 8/26/26 | 4.78 | 9 | 4.22 |
| 8/9/26 | 4.56 | 8 | 3.44 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.20 | 6 | 0.80 |
| 7/29/26 | 4.36 | 2 | 2.36 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.62 | 4 | 0.62 |
| 7/18/26 | 4.56 | 3 | 1.56 |
| 7/10/26 | 3.93 | 0 | 3.93 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.09 | 2 | 2.09 |
| 6/8/26 | 4.83 | 6 | 1.17 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.13 | 0 | 5.13 |