Bets
2
1W · 1L
Win Rate
50.0%
1/2
ROI
+12.41%
profit / wager
P&L
+0.71u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
1.81
Ks · n=2
Bias
+0.31
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 44 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
1W-1L
Win Rate
50%
MAE
1.81
P&L
+0.71u
UNDER2 bets
Record
1W-1L
Win Rate
50%
P&L
+0.71u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.8, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 15.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +3.61u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | HOU | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 12.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.91u | FanDuel |