Griffin Canning
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
0.80
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.05
predicted − actual
RMSE
0.93
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.51
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/23/26 | 4.29 | 4 | 0.29 |
| 7/18/26 | 3.94 | 4 | 0.06 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.20 | 5 | 0.80 |
| 7/4/26 | 4.38 | 4 | 0.38 |
| 6/29/26 | 4.03 | 3 | 1.03 |
| 6/12/26 | 4.60 | 6 | 1.40 |
| 6/6/26 | 4.85 | 6 | 1.15 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.28 | 3 | 1.28 |