Griffin Jax
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
1.96
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.71
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.56
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.45
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.81
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0373
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1031
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
11
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 3.97 | 5 | 1.03 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.29 | 7 | 2.71 |
| 9/9/26 | 4.51 | 2 | 2.51 |
| 9/2/26 | 4.24 | 1 | 3.24 |
| 8/2/26 | 5.22 | 8 | 2.78 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.64 | 10 | 5.36 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.74 | 5 | 0.26 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.93 | 6 | 1.07 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.77 | 3 | 1.77 |
| 7/6/26 | 4.41 | 10 | 5.59 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.81 | 5 | 0.19 |
| 6/24/26 | 4.68 | 7 | 2.32 |
| 6/19/26 | 3.91 | 5 | 1.09 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.73 | 5 | 0.27 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.51 | 4 | 0.51 |
| 6/1/26 | 5.00 | 5 | 0.00 |
| 5/26/26 | 5.63 | 3 | 2.63 |