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Bets
11
11W · 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
49.6% break-even (+102)
ROI
+106.22%
profit / wager
P&L
+27.45u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.02
Ks · n=8 predictions
Bias
+1.09
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
10W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+103 avg
MAE
1.99
P&L
+25.34u▲ 23.23u
UNDER6 bets
Record
6W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-116 avg
P&L
+12.32u
OVER5 bets
Record
5W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+124 avg
P&L
+15.13u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.1, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
6 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/5/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -147 | 16.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +2.77u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/5/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 17.0% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +3.90u | Bovada |
| 8/5/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +255 | 15.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +5.62u | BetRivers |
| 7/25/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -120 | 5.6% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.03u | BetMGM |
| 7/25/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +170 | 6.7% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.80u | BetRivers |
| 7/19/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +122 | 14.3% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +3.19u | FanDuel |
| 7/19/26 | BAL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -142 | 15.0% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +2.56u | DraftKings |
| 7/4/26 | TB | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -130 | 5.2% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +0.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @DET | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +124 | 9.1% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +2.04u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @DET | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -190 | 9.8% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.50u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -110 | 11.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.11u | BetMGM |