Hunter Brown
elite tier · 6.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
2.21
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.05
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.48
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.19
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.22
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 6.17 | 4 | 2.17 |
| 9/20/26 | 6.04 | 10 | 3.96 |
| 9/15/26 | 6.31 | 10 | 3.69 |
| 9/9/26 | 6.34 | 7 | 0.66 |
| 9/3/26 | 6.55 | 7 | 0.45 |
| 8/28/26 | 6.29 | 10 | 3.71 |
| 8/11/26 | 6.34 | 4 | 2.34 |
| 8/5/26 | 5.07 | 8 | 2.93 |
| 7/31/26 | 6.29 | 5 | 1.29 |
| 7/25/26 | 6.19 | 7 | 0.81 |
| 7/19/26 | 6.81 | 4 | 2.81 |
| 7/10/26 | 6.09 | 4 | 2.09 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.94 | 3 | 2.94 |
| 6/28/26 | 6.43 | 4 | 2.43 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.90 | 4 | 0.90 |