Look up a pitcher
Bets
18
1W · 12L
Win Rate
7.7%
32.7% break-even (+206)
ROI
-79.84%
profit / wager
P&L
-17.02u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.61
Ks · n=4 predictions
Bias
+1.61
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0629 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
1W-12L
Win Rate
8%
+206 avg
MAE
1.61
P&L
-17.02u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER18 bets
Record
1W-12L
Win Rate
8%
+206 avg
P&L
-17.02u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.4, α=0.063) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 30% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/10/26 | TOR | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -263 | 8.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.18u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/30/26 | SF | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -245 | 6.1% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.11u | Fanatics |
| 7/30/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +102 | 9.9% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -1.96u | BetRivers |
| 7/30/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +245 | 12.5% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -1.76u | BetRivers |
| 7/30/26 | SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +575 | 11.8% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -1.38u | BetRivers |
| 7/30/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1000 | 6.6% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -0.73u | Caesars |
| 7/20/26 | @ATL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +180 | 7.0% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.08u | Bovada |
| 7/20/26 | @ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 7.6% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -0.95u | Bovada |
| 7/20/26 | @ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +875 | 6.2% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -0.70u | Bovada |
| 7/10/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -115 | 11.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.45u | BetRivers |
| 7/10/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +205 | 14.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.18u | BetRivers |
| 7/10/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +450 | 13.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.68u | Bovada |
| 7/10/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1050 | 11.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.23u | BetRivers |
| 7/25/26 | @MIA | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -270 | 7.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/25/26 | @MIA | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -104 | 12.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | FanDuel |
| 7/25/26 | @MIA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +220 | 14.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | FanDuel |
| 7/25/26 | @MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +520 | 14.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | FanDuel |
| 7/25/26 | @MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1050 | 9.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |