Jack Flaherty
elite tier · 5.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
9
MAE
2.33
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.37
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.73
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.24
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/20/26 | 5.00 | 4 | 1.00 |
| 7/10/26 | 4.84 | 6 | 1.16 |
| 7/4/26 | 4.13 | 5 | 0.87 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.16 | 9 | 4.84 |
| 6/12/26 | 4.35 | 1 | 3.35 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.96 | 7 | 2.04 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.88 | 6 | 1.12 |
| 5/28/26 | 4.73 | 9 | 4.27 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.65 | 7 | 2.35 |