Jack Kochanowicz
scrub tier · 3.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
4
MAE
2.44
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.37
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.59
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.44
n=4
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.1359
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1933
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
47
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/6/26 | 4.19 | 1 | 3.19 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.27 | 1 | 3.27 |
| 5/26/26 | 5.15 | 4 | 1.15 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.86 | 7 | 2.14 |