Jack Leiter
good tier · 5.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
6
MAE
2.34
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.96
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.68
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.59
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
49
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/18/26 | 5.02 | 4 | 1.02 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.03 | 3 | 2.03 |
| 6/6/26 | 6.10 | 2 | 4.10 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.86 | 10 | 4.14 |
| 5/26/26 | 5.67 | 4 | 1.67 |
| 5/20/26 | 6.09 | 5 | 1.09 |