Jack Perkins
good tier · 5.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.90
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.20
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.29
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.42
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.21
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0008
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
7
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 4.36 | 4 | 0.36 |
| 9/15/26 | 5.26 | 8 | 2.74 |
| 9/8/26 | 5.33 | 3 | 2.33 |
| 9/3/26 | 5.38 | 7 | 1.62 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.94 | 5 | 0.06 |
| 8/18/26 | 4.69 | 4 | 0.69 |
| 8/12/26 | 5.30 | 2 | 3.30 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.04 | 3 | 2.04 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.25 | 9 | 3.75 |
| 7/27/26 | 5.27 | 4 | 1.27 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.85 | 4 | 0.85 |
| 7/9/26 | 6.46 | 2 | 4.46 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.21 | 8 | 2.79 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.48 | 5 | 0.48 |
| 6/21/26 | 6.22 | 8 | 1.78 |