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Bets
19
9W · 3L
Win Rate
75.0%
47.9% break-even (+109)
ROI
+74.80%
profit / wager
P&L
+14.24u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.20
Ks · n=7 predictions
Bias
-0.18
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0008 · 7 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-3L
Win Rate
63%▼ 38pp
+112 avg
MAE
2.62
P&L
+5.78u▼ 2.69u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+115 avg
P&L
+2.45u
OVER18 bets
Record
8W-3L
Win Rate
73%
+108 avg
P&L
+11.80u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.6, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
5 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | DET | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -235 | 7.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +1.07u | BetMGM |
| 8/1/26 | DET | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 7.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +1.35u | BetMGM |
| 8/1/26 | DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +186 | 7.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +2.23u | DraftKings |
| 8/1/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +401 | 7.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +3.60u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -200 | 5.4% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +0.81u | Fanatics |
| 6/27/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +115 | 11.4% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.45u | DraftKings |
| 6/21/26 | LAA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -210 | 7.9% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +1.16u | BetMGM |
| 6/21/26 | LAA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +100 | 9.7% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +1.95u | BetMGM |
| 6/21/26 | LAA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +200 | 9.7% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +2.91u | Bovada |
| 7/27/26 | BOS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -120 | 6.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.41u | BetMGM |
| 7/21/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +110 | 5.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.13u | Fanatics |
| 7/21/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +230 | 5.2% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.75u | Fanatics |
| 8/7/26 | @BOS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 11.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetMGM |
| 8/7/26 | @BOS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 13.9% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetMGM |
| 8/7/26 | @BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +180 | 14.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetMGM |
| 8/7/26 | @BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +360 | 12.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetMGM |
| 7/9/26 | @DET | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -235 | 7.8% | 6.5 | 4–9 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |
| 7/9/26 | @DET | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -120 | 8.4% | 6.5 | 4–9 | — | VOID | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/9/26 | @DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +170 | 9.7% | 6.5 | 4–9 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |