Jacob Lopez
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
11
MAE
2.17
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.28
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.60
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.19
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.23
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0733
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1232
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
29
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.03 | 4 | 0.03 |
| 9/19/26 | 4.45 | 1 | 3.45 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.57 | 3 | 1.57 |
| 9/7/26 | 4.53 | 1 | 3.53 |
| 9/2/26 | 4.65 | 7 | 2.35 |
| 8/10/26 | 4.32 | 5 | 0.68 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.95 | 9 | 4.05 |
| 7/29/26 | 3.78 | 8 | 4.22 |
| 7/24/26 | 3.75 | 4 | 0.25 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.05 | 6 | 1.95 |
| 5/31/26 | 3.80 | 2 | 1.80 |