Jacob Misiorowski
elite tier · 8.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
2.46
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.72
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.14
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.62
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.28
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
28
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 6.81 | 4 | 2.81 |
| 9/15/26 | 6.92 | 7 | 0.08 |
| 9/8/26 | 6.96 | 9 | 2.04 |
| 9/2/26 | 7.05 | 5 | 2.05 |
| 8/27/26 | 7.12 | 6 | 1.12 |
| 8/9/26 | 6.00 | 9 | 3.00 |
| 8/2/26 | 6.64 | 10 | 3.36 |
| 7/26/26 | 6.77 | 12 | 5.23 |
| 7/20/26 | 6.24 | 6 | 0.24 |
| 7/7/26 | 6.45 | 11 | 4.55 |
| 7/2/26 | 7.40 | 10 | 2.60 |
| 6/26/26 | 6.41 | 8 | 1.59 |
| 6/19/26 | 6.44 | 7 | 0.56 |
| 6/12/26 | 7.99 | 15 | 7.01 |
| 6/6/26 | 8.11 | 8 | 0.11 |
| 5/31/26 | 7.14 | 8 | 0.86 |
| 5/25/26 | 7.33 | 12 | 4.67 |