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Bets
4
0W · 4L
Win Rate
0.0%
29.2% break-even (+242)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-7.48u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.01
Ks · n=3 predictions
Bias
+0.33
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
0W-4L
Win Rate
0%
+242 avg
MAE
2.01
P&L
-7.48u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER4 bets
Record
0W-4L
Win Rate
0%
+242 avg
P&L
-7.48u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.6, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 18% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/5/26 | @PHI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -116 | 14.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.05u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/5/26 | @PHI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +185 | 13.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.06u | Fanatics |
| 8/5/26 | @PHI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +440 | 12.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.50u | Fanatics |
| 8/5/26 | @PHI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +950 | 7.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.87u | Fanatics |