Jake Irvin
avg tier · 4.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
1.71
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.28
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.09
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.53
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 3.83 | 8 | 4.17 |
| 9/7/26 | 4.68 | 3 | 1.68 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.79 | 5 | 0.21 |
| 8/27/26 | 4.95 | 6 | 1.05 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.55 | 4 | 0.55 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.12 | 3 | 1.12 |
| 7/30/26 | 3.40 | 1 | 2.40 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.48 | 7 | 2.52 |