Jameson Taillon
avg tier · 4.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
1.51
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.30
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.70
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.84
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/4/26 | 3.74 | 1 | 2.74 |
| 8/10/26 | 3.93 | 3 | 0.93 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.45 | 3 | 1.45 |
| 7/20/26 | 3.61 | 6 | 2.39 |
| 6/7/26 | 3.70 | 2 | 1.70 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.16 | 6 | 1.84 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.44 | 4 | 0.44 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.37 | 5 | 0.63 |