Janson Junk
scrub tier · 3.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
1.56
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.25
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.84
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.65
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.54
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
28
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 3.34 | 6 | 2.66 |
| 9/15/26 | 3.47 | 4 | 0.53 |
| 9/9/26 | 3.58 | 0 | 3.58 |
| 9/4/26 | 3.61 | 4 | 0.39 |
| 8/30/26 | 3.11 | 2 | 1.11 |
| 8/12/26 | 3.59 | 2 | 1.59 |
| 8/6/26 | 3.36 | 1 | 2.36 |
| 7/31/26 | 3.67 | 4 | 0.33 |
| 7/26/26 | 3.31 | 6 | 2.69 |
| 7/20/26 | 3.74 | 3 | 0.74 |
| 7/9/26 | 3.09 | 5 | 1.91 |
| 5/25/26 | 4.17 | 3 | 1.17 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.19 | 3 | 1.19 |