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Bets
6
2W · 4L
Win Rate
33.3%
49.4% break-even (+102)
ROI
-26.96%
profit / wager
P&L
-3.26u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.48
Ks · n=7 predictions
Bias
+0.08
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 28 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-4L
Win Rate
33%
+102 avg
MAE
1.61
P&L
-3.26u
UNDER5 bets
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%
+106 avg
P&L
-2.04u
OVER1 bet
Record
0W-1L
Win Rate
0%
-115 avg
P&L
-1.22u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.5, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-5 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 15% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
5 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +117 | 10.8% | 3.4 | 2–5 | 1 | WIN | +2.35u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -143 | 10.8% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.84u | BetRivers |
| 7/31/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +126 | 5.6% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 4 | LOSS | -1.01u | FanDuel |
| 7/26/26 | SD | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +126 | 13.8% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 6 | LOSS | -2.47u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | SEA | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +102 | 13.9% | 3.1 | 1–5 | 5 | LOSS | -2.76u | DraftKings |
| 5/25/26 | @TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -115 | 5.7% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.22u | DraftKings |