Jared Jones
elite tier · 5.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
2.03
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.86
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.41
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.96
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.65
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
26
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.51 | 9 | 3.49 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.44 | 9 | 3.56 |
| 9/10/26 | 5.29 | 8 | 2.71 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.04 | 9 | 3.96 |
| 8/28/26 | 4.94 | 6 | 1.06 |
| 8/9/26 | 5.39 | 3 | 2.39 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.44 | 4 | 1.44 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.36 | 5 | 0.36 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.95 | 5 | 0.05 |
| 7/18/26 | 5.00 | 9 | 4.00 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.69 | 8 | 3.31 |
| 7/2/26 | 4.98 | 6 | 1.02 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.35 | 4 | 1.35 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.12 | 3 | 2.12 |
| 6/15/26 | 4.57 | 4 | 0.57 |
| 6/10/26 | 5.10 | 4 | 1.10 |