Javier Assad
scrub tier · 3.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
1.39
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.54
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.84
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.00
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0199
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0275
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/26 | 3.10 | 3 | 0.10 |
| 8/4/26 | 3.53 | 3 | 0.53 |
| 7/30/26 | 2.62 | 6 | 3.38 |
| 7/11/26 | 3.86 | 4 | 0.14 |
| 7/5/26 | 2.84 | 2 | 0.84 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.94 | 5 | 1.06 |
| 6/17/26 | 2.95 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 6/12/26 | 1.86 | 5 | 3.14 |