Bets
1
1W · 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
1/1
ROI
+74.63%
profit / wager
P&L
+2.32u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
0.62
Ks · n=1
Bias
+0.62
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
MAE
0.62
P&L
+2.32u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
P&L
+2.32u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.6, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 16% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | MIL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -134 | 13.3% | 3.6 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +2.32u | FanDuel |