Jeffrey Springs
avg tier · 4.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
1.68
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.78
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.93
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.68
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.90
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.24 | 3 | 1.24 |
| 9/17/26 | 3.46 | 4 | 0.54 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.37 | 1 | 3.37 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.36 | 6 | 1.64 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.40 | 6 | 1.60 |
| 8/24/26 | 3.81 | 3 | 0.81 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.11 | 2 | 2.11 |
| 7/26/26 | 3.88 | 0 | 3.88 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.31 | 2 | 2.31 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.40 | 4 | 0.40 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.27 | 2 | 2.27 |
| 6/25/26 | 4.27 | 6 | 1.73 |
| 6/19/26 | 5.87 | 4 | 1.87 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.74 | 5 | 0.26 |
| 6/8/26 | 3.83 | 3 | 0.83 |
| 6/3/26 | 4.41 | 3 | 1.41 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.61 | 7 | 2.39 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.61 | 3 | 1.61 |