Joe Ryan
good tier · 5.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
3.61
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.62
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.93
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.38
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.73
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 5.20 | 1 | 4.20 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.20 | 0 | 5.20 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.56 | 1 | 3.56 |
| 9/7/26 | 4.46 | 1 | 3.46 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.54 | 6 | 0.46 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.44 | 3 | 2.44 |
| 7/20/26 | 5.05 | 3 | 2.05 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.74 | 1 | 4.74 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.18 | 9 | 3.82 |
| 6/30/26 | 5.59 | 0 | 5.59 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.09 | 0 | 5.09 |
| 6/18/26 | 4.86 | 7 | 2.14 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.21 | 1 | 4.21 |
| 6/6/26 | 4.59 | 5 | 0.41 |
| 6/1/26 | 4.01 | 9 | 4.99 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.89 | 1 | 3.89 |
| 5/20/26 | 3.95 | 9 | 5.05 |