Joey Cantillo
good tier · 5.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
2.15
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.38
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.57
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.13
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.07
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
36
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/7/26 | 6.64 | 3 | 3.64 |
| 9/2/26 | 4.97 | 6 | 1.03 |
| 8/26/26 | 4.28 | 1 | 3.28 |
| 8/9/26 | 5.61 | 3 | 2.61 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.11 | 5 | 0.11 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.63 | 8 | 2.37 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.24 | 4 | 0.24 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.18 | 7 | 1.82 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.01 | 9 | 3.99 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.07 | 7 | 1.93 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.42 | 4 | 0.42 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.15 | 9 | 3.85 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.40 | 9 | 4.60 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.80 | 4 | 0.80 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.71 | 7 | 2.29 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.92 | 4 | 0.92 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.85 | 1 | 3.85 |
| 5/21/26 | 5.13 | 6 | 0.87 |