Look up a pitcher
Bets
4
0W · 4L
Win Rate
0.0%
29.1% break-even (+243)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-7.56u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.59
Ks · n=1 predictions
Bias
+2.59
over-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
0W-4L
Win Rate
0%
+243 avg
MAE
2.59
P&L
-7.56u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER4 bets
Record
0W-4L
Win Rate
0%
+243 avg
P&L
-7.56u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -122 | 13.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.87u | BetRivers |
| 7/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +200 | 15.3% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.29u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +450 | 12.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.56u | Bovada |
| 7/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +900 | 7.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.84u | Fanatics |