Justin Wrobleski
good tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
2.29
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.92
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.91
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.16
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.39
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0511
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1038
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
19
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/17/26 | 5.22 | 3 | 2.22 |
| 9/6/26 | 4.37 | 6 | 1.63 |
| 8/9/26 | 3.87 | 3 | 0.87 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.86 | 7 | 2.14 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.07 | 9 | 3.93 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.84 | 11 | 6.16 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.02 | 3 | 1.02 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.16 | 5 | 0.84 |
| 6/11/26 | 4.56 | 1 | 3.56 |
| 6/4/26 | 4.35 | 4 | 0.35 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.46 | 9 | 4.54 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.18 | 4 | 0.18 |