Keider Montero
scrub tier · 3.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.60
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.12
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.04
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.97
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.31
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0032
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0043
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
41
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/16/26 | 2.90 | 4 | 1.10 |
| 9/9/26 | 3.08 | 2 | 1.08 |
| 9/4/26 | 2.90 | 4 | 1.10 |
| 8/29/26 | 3.55 | 3 | 0.55 |
| 8/18/26 | 4.04 | 3 | 1.04 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.02 | 5 | 0.98 |
| 8/2/26 | 3.35 | 2 | 1.35 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.55 | 1 | 3.55 |
| 7/22/26 | 3.26 | 8 | 4.74 |
| 6/26/26 | 3.94 | 3 | 0.94 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.27 | 3 | 1.27 |
| 6/11/26 | 3.55 | 4 | 0.45 |
| 6/6/26 | 4.10 | 1 | 3.10 |
| 5/31/26 | 3.89 | 4 | 0.11 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.33 | 7 | 2.67 |