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Bets
7
2W · 5L
Win Rate
28.6%
53.5% break-even (-115)
ROI
-47.93%
profit / wager
P&L
-6.03u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.02
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
+0.25
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0032 · 41 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-4L
Win Rate
33%▲ 33pp
-120 avg
MAE
2.37
P&L
-5.02u▼ 4.01u
UNDER3 bets
Record
1W-2L
Win Rate
33%
-100 avg
P&L
-1.13u
OVER4 bets
Record
1W-3L
Win Rate
25%
-128 avg
P&L
-4.90u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.9, α=0.003) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 20% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
6 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/26 | BAL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -114 | 9.0% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 1 | WIN | +1.69u | DraftKings |
| 6/26/26 | HOU | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 5.7% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +0.78u | Fanatics |
| 8/2/26 | @ATH | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +130 | 14.2% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.52u | BetMGM |
| 7/22/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +100 | 9.1% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 8 | LOSS | -1.81u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | HOU | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -120 | 5.2% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.14u | BetMGM |
| 6/21/26 | CWS | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -113 | 9.5% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -2.03u | BetRivers |
| 6/11/26 | MIN | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +113 | 5.4% | 3.5 | 2–5 | 4 | LOSS | -1.01u | DraftKings |