Kevin Gausman
elite tier · 5.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.49
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.86
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.11
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.59
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.69 | 7 | 1.31 |
| 9/15/26 | 5.70 | 6 | 0.30 |
| 9/9/26 | 5.80 | 6 | 0.20 |
| 9/3/26 | 5.87 | 9 | 3.13 |
| 8/29/26 | 6.37 | 7 | 0.63 |
| 8/24/26 | 5.07 | 6 | 0.93 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.95 | 5 | 0.95 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.23 | 4 | 1.23 |
| 7/26/26 | 5.95 | 6 | 0.05 |
| 7/21/26 | 5.77 | 1 | 4.77 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.71 | 8 | 2.29 |
| 7/6/26 | 5.86 | 8 | 2.14 |
| 6/30/26 | 5.85 | 7 | 1.15 |
| 6/25/26 | 5.71 | 4 | 1.71 |
| 6/19/26 | 5.77 | 3 | 2.77 |
| 6/13/26 | 7.32 | 7 | 0.32 |
| 6/7/26 | 6.76 | 5 | 1.76 |
| 6/2/26 | 6.91 | 8 | 1.09 |
| 5/27/26 | 6.67 | 5 | 1.67 |
| 5/22/26 | 6.63 | 8 | 1.37 |