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Bets
32
18W · 14L
Win Rate
56.3%
40.1% break-even (+149)
ROI
+52.10%
profit / wager
P&L
+31.61u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.72
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.47
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
7W-3L
Win Rate
70%▲ 20pp
+131 avg
MAE
2.10▲ 0.55
P&L
+8.99u▼ 13.64u
UNDER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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OVER32 bets
Record
18W-14L
Win Rate
56%
+149 avg
P&L
+31.61u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.5, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/26/26 | @BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +118 | 9.0% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.96u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/26/26 | @BOS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -195 | 5.4% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +0.82u | BetRivers |
| 7/12/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 5.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +1.21u | BetMGM |
| 7/12/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +210 | 5.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +1.83u | Fanatics |
| 7/6/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -185 | 5.4% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +0.83u | Bovada |
| 7/6/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +115 | 6.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +1.49u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +280 | 10.6% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +4.03u | Bovada |
| 6/13/26 | NYY | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -295 | 8.6% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 7 | WIN | +1.14u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -140 | 13.1% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 7 | WIN | +2.24u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | NYY | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +140 | 15.9% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 7 | WIN | +3.82u | BetMGM |
| 6/7/26 | BAL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -180 | 14.7% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +2.29u | Fliff |
| 6/2/26 | @ATL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -190 | 14.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 8 | WIN | +2.28u | Fanatics |
| 6/2/26 | @ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +110 | 19.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 8 | WIN | +4.18u | Fanatics |
| 6/2/26 | @ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +221 | 21.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 8 | WIN | +7.04u | DraftKings |
| 6/2/26 | @ATL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +433 | 20.2% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 8 | WIN | +10.79u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -139 | 5.6% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +0.96u | BetOnline.ag |
| 5/22/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | MAIN | +132 | 7.4% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +1.73u | BetOnline.ag |
| 5/22/26 | @PIT | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +260 | 8.6% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 8 | WIN | +3.11u | BetRivers |
| 8/1/26 | STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +125 | 7.2% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.29u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/26/26 | @BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +250 | 7.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.05u | Bovada |
| 7/21/26 | TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +240 | 6.0% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -0.85u | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -230 | 5.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.93u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -110 | 7.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.64u | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +198 | 10.6% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.59u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +390 | 9.4% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.18u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +700 | 6.1% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -0.69u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | NYY | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +265 | 17.3% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 7 | LOSS | -2.38u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | NYY | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +525 | 16.0% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 7 | LOSS | -1.90u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | NYY | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +1040 | 11.9% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 7 | LOSS | -1.30u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +145 | 10.1% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -1.70u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | BAL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +380 | 16.0% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.02u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @PIT | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +490 | 5.0% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -0.61u | FanDuel |