Look up a pitcher
Bets
3
0W · 3L
Win Rate
0.0%
38.9% break-even (+157)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-4.60u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
3.51
Ks · n=1 predictions
Bias
+3.51
over-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
0W-3L
Win Rate
0%
+157 avg
MAE
3.51
P&L
-4.60u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER3 bets
Record
0W-3L
Win Rate
0%
+157 avg
P&L
-4.60u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | SD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -135 | 9.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.11u | BetMGM |
| 8/6/26 | SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +164 | 9.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.46u | FanDuel |
| 8/6/26 | SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +370 | 8.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.03u | FanDuel |