Kyle Bradish
elite tier · 5.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
1.99
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.79
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.41
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.78
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.42
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/12/26 | 4.26 | 2 | 2.26 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.03 | 3 | 2.03 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.56 | 4 | 1.56 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.54 | 4 | 1.54 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.49 | 4 | 1.49 |
| 7/27/26 | 5.90 | 4 | 1.90 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.66 | 4 | 1.66 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.32 | 5 | 0.32 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.46 | 5 | 0.46 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.76 | 2 | 2.76 |
| 6/22/26 | 5.72 | 9 | 3.28 |
| 6/17/26 | 5.65 | 12 | 6.35 |
| 6/11/26 | 5.75 | 5 | 0.75 |
| 6/6/26 | 5.11 | 3 | 2.11 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.15 | 4 | 1.15 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.22 | 3 | 2.22 |