Kyle Freeland
avg tier · 4.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
1.85
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.28
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.32
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.16
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 4.66 | 2 | 2.66 |
| 9/15/26 | 3.74 | 1 | 2.74 |
| 8/8/26 | 3.79 | 3 | 0.79 |
| 8/2/26 | 4.46 | 8 | 3.54 |
| 7/26/26 | 3.89 | 2 | 1.89 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.67 | 4 | 0.67 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.28 | 9 | 4.72 |
| 7/6/26 | 4.78 | 2 | 2.78 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.53 | 7 | 2.47 |
| 6/24/26 | 4.15 | 4 | 0.15 |
| 6/19/26 | 4.89 | 8 | 3.11 |
| 6/13/26 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.08 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.16 | 2 | 2.16 |
| 6/1/26 | 4.57 | 4 | 0.57 |
| 5/26/26 | 3.39 | 4 | 0.61 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.61 | 4 | 0.61 |