Kyle Harrison
elite tier · 5.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
3.23
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.23
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.56
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.42
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.45
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0314
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0436
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/17/26 | 5.96 | 2 | 3.96 |
| 9/6/26 | 6.83 | 4 | 2.83 |
| 8/31/26 | 5.59 | 3 | 2.59 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.60 | 5 | 0.60 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.87 | 8 | 2.13 |
| 8/11/26 | 5.05 | 3 | 2.05 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.66 | 10 | 5.34 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.54 | 2 | 3.54 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.80 | 3 | 2.80 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.46 | 9 | 3.54 |
| 6/20/26 | 5.75 | 7 | 1.25 |
| 6/14/26 | 6.10 | 3 | 3.10 |
| 6/8/26 | 8.26 | 4 | 4.26 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.77 | 12 | 6.23 |
| 5/26/26 | 3.93 | 2 | 1.93 |
| 5/20/26 | 5.52 | 11 | 5.48 |