Kyle Leahy
avg tier · 4.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.86
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.90
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.36
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.47
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.61
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0386
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0886
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
15
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 2.91 | 3 | 0.09 |
| 9/18/26 | 3.32 | 1 | 2.32 |
| 9/12/26 | 3.28 | 4 | 0.72 |
| 9/6/26 | 2.59 | 6 | 3.41 |
| 8/29/26 | 3.82 | 3 | 0.82 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.03 | 6 | 0.97 |
| 8/12/26 | 3.69 | 6 | 2.31 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.14 | 8 | 3.86 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.08 | 3 | 1.08 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.17 | 9 | 4.83 |
| 7/20/26 | 3.65 | 4 | 0.35 |
| 7/10/26 | 4.29 | 2 | 2.29 |
| 7/4/26 | 4.34 | 6 | 1.66 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.92 | 5 | 0.08 |
| 6/23/26 | 3.34 | 3 | 0.34 |
| 6/17/26 | 3.34 | 7 | 3.66 |
| 6/12/26 | 3.38 | 5 | 1.62 |
| 6/5/26 | 3.70 | 1 | 2.70 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.01 | 4 | 0.01 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.00 | 8 | 4.00 |