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Bets
14
2W · 8L
Win Rate
20.0%
39.2% break-even (+155)
ROI
-28.93%
profit / wager
P&L
-5.56u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.89
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.81
under-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0386 · 15 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-5L
Win Rate
29%▲ 29pp
+188 avg
MAE
2.04▲ 0.36
P&L
+2.07u▲ 9.70u
UNDER10 bets
Record
2W-4L
Win Rate
33%
+102 avg
P&L
-2.10u
OVER4 bets
Record
0W-4L
Win Rate
0%
+321 avg
P&L
-3.46u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.0, α=0.039) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
6 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/20/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +115 | 23.1% | 3.6 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +4.97u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/23/26 | ARI | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +114 | 10.9% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +2.33u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | CIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -120 | 8.0% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 9 | LOSS | -1.76u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +225 | 6.0% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.87u | FanDuel |
| 6/28/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +470 | 5.8% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.70u | FanDuel |
| 6/23/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +225 | 7.3% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.05u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +525 | 7.1% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -0.84u | Bovada |
| 6/17/26 | SD | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +125 | 12.8% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 7 | LOSS | -2.30u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +135 | 12.8% | 3.4 | 1–5 | 5 | LOSS | -2.24u | BetMGM |
| 6/12/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -162 | 11.8% | 3.4 | 1–5 | 5 | LOSS | -3.09u | BetRivers |
| 8/7/26 | COL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +101 | 7.9% | 4.3 | 2–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 3.5 | N/A | +195 | 8.1% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 4.5 | N/A | -109 | 10.7% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | N/A | -240 | 7.9% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |