Lake Bachar
scrub tier · 2.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
6
MAE
0.69
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.54
predicted − actual
RMSE
0.91
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.67
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0010
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0008
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
4
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 2.00 | 2 | 0.00 |
| 9/20/26 | 2.32 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 9/15/26 | 2.58 | 1 | 1.58 |
| 9/9/26 | 2.66 | 3 | 0.34 |
| 9/3/26 | 2.89 | 3 | 0.11 |
| 8/29/26 | 2.79 | 2 | 0.79 |