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Bets
18
9W · 9L
Win Rate
50.0%
49.6% break-even (+102)
ROI
-7.41%
profit / wager
P&L
-3.20u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.76
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-1.20
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
6W-4L
Win Rate
60%▲ 23pp
+105 avg
MAE
1.82▼ 0.29
P&L
+3.02u▲ 9.24u
UNDER12 bets
Record
4W-8L
Win Rate
33%
-104 avg
P&L
-13.15u
OVER6 bets
Record
5W-1L
Win Rate
83%
+114 avg
P&L
+9.95u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.7, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | MIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -109 | 5.9% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.12u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/26/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -115 | 5.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +1.01u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @TB | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -102 | 18.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.63u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -161 | 12.1% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.96u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/4/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +120 | 12.2% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.68u | Bovada |
| 7/4/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +242 | 11.8% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +4.05u | DraftKings |
| 5/27/26 | @ATH | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -180 | 17.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.73u | Bovada |
| 5/22/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -190 | 5.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +0.84u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +110 | 5.9% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.23u | BetMGM |
| 8/1/26 | MIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +138 | 13.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -2.28u | BetMGM |
| 7/19/26 | SF | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +106 | 30.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 10 | LOSS | -5.99u | BetRivers |
| 7/4/26 | TOR | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +122 | 6.2% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -1.13u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | TOR | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -145 | 8.3% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -2.04u | DraftKings |
| 6/27/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +128 | 19.4% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -3.46u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/21/26 | BOS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +115 | 8.7% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -1.62u | Fanatics |
| 6/21/26 | BOS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -154 | 9.5% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -2.42u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +117 | 14.6% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -2.71u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +225 | 5.6% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.81u | BetMGM |