Logan Gilbert
elite tier · 6.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
1.86
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.08
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.43
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.76
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.54
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.90 | 3 | 2.90 |
| 9/15/26 | 5.89 | 7 | 1.11 |
| 9/10/26 | 5.93 | 11 | 5.07 |
| 9/4/26 | 6.00 | 10 | 4.00 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.71 | 4 | 0.71 |
| 8/24/26 | 5.33 | 5 | 0.33 |
| 8/7/26 | 6.10 | 6 | 0.10 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.37 | 6 | 0.63 |
| 7/26/26 | 5.48 | 4 | 1.48 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.82 | 10 | 5.18 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.61 | 5 | 0.39 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.59 | 7 | 1.41 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.84 | 7 | 1.16 |
| 6/21/26 | 6.32 | 8 | 1.68 |
| 6/16/26 | 5.99 | 10 | 4.01 |
| 6/9/26 | 6.89 | 5 | 1.89 |
| 6/2/26 | 6.22 | 8 | 1.78 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.63 | 6 | 1.37 |
| 5/22/26 | 5.85 | 6 | 0.15 |