Logan Henderson
elite tier · 6.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
1.93
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.39
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.20
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.82
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.38
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0007
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
10
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.22 | 3 | 2.22 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.16 | 8 | 2.84 |
| 9/9/26 | 5.35 | 6 | 0.65 |
| 9/3/26 | 5.27 | 7 | 1.73 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.35 | 7 | 1.65 |
| 8/10/26 | 5.19 | 7 | 1.81 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.11 | 8 | 2.89 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.07 | 7 | 1.93 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.80 | 9 | 4.20 |
| 7/17/26 | 5.05 | 4 | 1.05 |
| 7/9/26 | 3.97 | 4 | 0.03 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.80 | 7 | 2.20 |