Bets
5
4W · 1L
Win Rate
80.0%
4/5
ROI
+53.08%
profit / wager
P&L
+3.80u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
1.29
Ks · n=5
Bias
-1.29
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
4W-1L
Win Rate
80%
MAE
1.28
P&L
+3.80u
UNDER1 bet
Record
0W-1L
Win Rate
0%
P&L
-2.25u
OVER4 bets
Record
4W-0L
Win Rate
100%
P&L
+6.05u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -160 | 6.7% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.08u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +130 | 7.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.74u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +250 | 6.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.11u | BetMGM |
| 5/29/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +113 | 5.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.13u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -138 | 9.5% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.25u | DraftKings |