Logan Webb
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
3.12
Ks off, on average
Bias
+2.30
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.49
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.26
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.77
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13/26 | 5.25 | 7 | 1.75 |
| 9/7/26 | 5.13 | 1 | 4.13 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.46 | 1 | 4.46 |
| 8/9/26 | 5.68 | 2 | 3.68 |
| 8/3/26 | 5.71 | 8 | 2.29 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.60 | 4 | 1.60 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.70 | 1 | 4.70 |
| 7/18/26 | 6.10 | 1 | 5.10 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.92 | 2 | 3.92 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.55 | 2 | 3.55 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.93 | 5 | 0.93 |
| 6/14/26 | 5.89 | 0 | 5.89 |
| 6/8/26 | 4.74 | 7 | 2.26 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.67 | 1 | 3.67 |
| 6/3/26 | 5.75 | 4 | 1.75 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.77 | 5 | 0.23 |