Lucas Giolito
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
2
MAE
1.21
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.33
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.25
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.21
n=2
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0071
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0096
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/9/26 | 4.54 | 3 | 1.54 |
| 6/4/26 | 4.12 | 5 | 0.88 |