Look up a pitcher
Bets
34
14W · 20L
Win Rate
41.2%
34.6% break-even (+189)
ROI
+64.98%
profit / wager
P&L
+55.68u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.30
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
+1.14
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0677 · 5 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
6W-12L
Win Rate
33%▼ 17pp
+186 avg
MAE
2.39
P&L
+20.56u▼ 14.56u
UNDER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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OVER34 bets
Record
14W-20L
Win Rate
41%
+189 avg
P&L
+55.68u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.8, α=0.068) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/21/26 | SF | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -265 | 9.7% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.33u | Bovada |
| 7/21/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -115 | 13.3% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.49u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 19.5% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +6.45u | Bovada |
| 7/21/26 | SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +500 | 17.6% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +10.59u | Bovada |
| 7/21/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1200 | 14.3% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +18.56u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/5/26 | PHI | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -165 | 8.1% | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.30u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | @CWS | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -141 | 10.3% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.76u | BetRivers |
| 6/23/26 | @TB | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -190 | 18.2% | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.78u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +135 | 26.5% | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | WIN | +6.24u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +300 | 27.6% | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | WIN | +11.03u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +775 | 25.6% | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | WIN | +22.44u | Bovada |
| 6/17/26 | @WAS | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -185 | 14.5% | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.24u | Fanatics |
| 6/17/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +135 | 18.0% | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +4.22u | Fanatics |
| 6/17/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +310 | 16.1% | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +6.61u | Fanatics |
| 8/1/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +350 | 9.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.27u | Bovada |
| 7/26/26 | @DET | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -152 | 7.2% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.81u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/26/26 | @DET | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +150 | 10.7% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.77u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | @DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +330 | 11.8% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.54u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | @DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 10.9% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.23u | BetRivers |
| 7/10/26 | @BAL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -170 | 8.5% | 5.1 | 2–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.29u | DraftKings |
| 7/10/26 | @BAL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +131 | 12.0% | 5.1 | 2–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.12u | DraftKings |
| 7/10/26 | @BAL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +282 | 13.5% | 5.1 | 2–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.83u | DraftKings |
| 7/10/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +596 | 12.2% | 5.1 | 2–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.43u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | PHI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +138 | 11.4% | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.97u | FanDuel |
| 7/5/26 | PHI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +290 | 12.2% | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.64u | BetRivers |
| 7/5/26 | PHI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +600 | 10.7% | 5.0 | 2–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.24u | Bovada |
| 6/28/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +170 | 15.1% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.40u | Bovada |
| 6/28/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +365 | 15.0% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.91u | Bovada |
| 6/28/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +780 | 12.5% | 4.9 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.41u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1460 | 18.0% | 4.9 | 2–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/17/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +650 | 10.5% | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.21u | Fanatics |
| 6/17/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1500 | 6.2% | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.66u | Fanatics |
| 6/12/26 | HOU | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -215 | 22.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 0 | LOSS | -6.92u | Fanatics |
| 6/12/26 | HOU | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +110 | 30.1% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 0 | LOSS | -5.76u | BetMGM |