Luinder Avila
scrub tier · 3.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
9
MAE
2.30
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.14
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.67
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.39
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0677
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.3342
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
5
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | 4.55 | 2 | 2.55 |
| 7/26/26 | 5.39 | 2 | 3.39 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.13 | 7 | 2.87 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.11 | 3 | 2.11 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.02 | 4 | 1.02 |
| 6/28/26 | 5.08 | 4 | 1.08 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.46 | 6 | 1.54 |
| 6/17/26 | 4.17 | 5 | 0.83 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.31 | 0 | 5.31 |