Luis Castillo
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
11
MAE
2.20
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.06
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.57
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.40
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.17
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/26 | 4.95 | 3 | 1.95 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.48 | 1 | 4.48 |
| 8/12/26 | 5.58 | 10 | 4.42 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.68 | 2 | 3.68 |
| 7/21/26 | 5.46 | 3 | 2.46 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.07 | 4 | 1.07 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.83 | 4 | 1.83 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.35 | 4 | 1.35 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.14 | 4 | 1.14 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.55 | 5 | 0.45 |
| 5/25/26 | 4.58 | 6 | 1.42 |