Look up a pitcher
Bets
2
2W · 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
55.2% break-even (-123)
ROI
+85.48%
profit / wager
P&L
+3.80u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
4.50
Ks · n=2 predictions
Bias
-0.76
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0096 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
2W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-123 avg
MAE
4.50
P&L
+3.80u
UNDER2 bets
Record
2W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-123 avg
P&L
+3.80u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.8, α=0.010) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/29/26 | NYY | UNDER | 4.5 | ALT | +165 | 10.4% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 1 | WIN | +2.75u | BetRivers |
| 5/29/26 | NYY | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | -265 | 7.6% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 1 | WIN | +1.05u | BetRivers |