Matt Waldron
scrub tier · 3.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
1
MAE
2.63
Ks off, on average
Bias
+2.63
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.63
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.63
n=1
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0168
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0256
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
36
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/26/26 | 3.63 | 1 | 2.63 |