Matthew Boyd
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.71
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.26
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.92
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.23
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.18
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 5.45 | 3 | 2.45 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.49 | 4 | 1.49 |
| 9/13/26 | 5.93 | 3 | 2.93 |
| 9/7/26 | 5.22 | 7 | 1.78 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.52 | 3 | 2.52 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.64 | 5 | 0.64 |
| 8/9/26 | 5.04 | 3 | 2.04 |
| 8/3/26 | 4.32 | 3 | 1.32 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.51 | 5 | 0.51 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.39 | 4 | 1.39 |
| 7/18/26 | 4.44 | 4 | 0.44 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.71 | 3 | 2.71 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.38 | 7 | 1.62 |
| 6/30/26 | 5.08 | 2 | 3.08 |
| 6/25/26 | 4.76 | 4 | 0.76 |