Matthew Liberatore
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
2.12
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.26
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.58
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.65
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.77
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0169
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0233
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.49 | 6 | 1.51 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.91 | 2 | 3.91 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.72 | 2 | 2.72 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.88 | 3 | 1.88 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.79 | 9 | 3.21 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.03 | 3 | 2.03 |
| 8/2/26 | 3.71 | 7 | 3.29 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.89 | 5 | 0.11 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.69 | 7 | 2.31 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.89 | 6 | 1.11 |
| 7/5/26 | 4.97 | 3 | 1.97 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.39 | 9 | 4.61 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.00 | 3 | 0.00 |
| 6/18/26 | 4.15 | 2 | 2.15 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.12 | 4 | 0.12 |
| 6/6/26 | 5.19 | 4 | 1.19 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.82 | 4 | 0.82 |
| 5/25/26 | 4.70 | 10 | 5.30 |