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Bets
7
4W · 3L
Win Rate
57.1%
38.8% break-even (+157)
ROI
+74.54%
profit / wager
P&L
+10.75u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.88
Ks · n=3 predictions
Bias
-0.49
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
4W-3L
Win Rate
57%
+157 avg
MAE
1.88
P&L
+10.75u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER7 bets
Record
4W-3L
Win Rate
57%
+157 avg
P&L
+10.75u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.4, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 29% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/26 | PIT | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -148 | 12.1% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.02u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | PIT | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +146 | 12.5% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.08u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +320 | 11.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +4.76u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 9.0% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +7.69u | FanDuel |
| 7/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -170 | 10.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -2.82u | Fanatics |
| 7/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +125 | 12.8% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -2.29u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +250 | 12.1% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -1.69u | FanDuel |