Max Fried
elite tier · 5.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
9
MAE
1.32
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.36
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.44
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.93
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 4.37 | 4 | 0.37 |
| 9/15/26 | 5.14 | 6 | 0.86 |
| 9/10/26 | 5.41 | 7 | 1.59 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.35 | 4 | 1.35 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.50 | 4 | 0.50 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.42 | 7 | 1.58 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.30 | 7 | 1.70 |
| 7/27/26 | 6.09 | 4 | 2.09 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.15 | 7 | 1.85 |