Merrill Kelly
avg tier · 4.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
22
MAE
1.68
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.15
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.83
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.37
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0180
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0248
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.29 | 3 | 1.29 |
| 9/16/26 | 4.43 | 4 | 0.43 |
| 9/4/26 | 4.44 | 0 | 4.44 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.34 | 7 | 2.66 |
| 8/24/26 | 4.31 | 4 | 0.31 |
| 8/18/26 | 3.85 | 2 | 1.85 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.45 | 2 | 2.45 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.51 | 4 | 0.51 |
| 8/2/26 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 |
| 7/27/26 | 5.05 | 6 | 0.95 |
| 7/22/26 | 3.16 | 3 | 0.16 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.60 | 3 | 1.60 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.67 | 6 | 1.33 |
| 7/4/26 | 4.91 | 6 | 1.09 |
| 6/28/26 | 3.91 | 3 | 0.91 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.49 | 2 | 2.49 |
| 6/16/26 | 3.97 | 4 | 0.03 |
| 6/11/26 | 4.29 | 1 | 3.29 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.80 | 0 | 4.80 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.77 | 1 | 3.77 |
| 5/25/26 | 4.74 | 4 | 0.74 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.67 | 4 | 0.67 |