Look up a pitcher
Bets
44
17W · 23L
Win Rate
42.5%
37.0% break-even (+170)
ROI
+2.64%
profit / wager
P&L
+2.38u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.64
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+1.00
over-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0180 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
10W-11L
Win Rate
48%▲ 9pp
+159 avg
MAE
1.02▼ 0.54
P&L
+3.44u▲ 3.08u
UNDER3 bets
Record
3W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-114 avg
P&L
+8.55u
OVER41 bets
Record
14W-23L
Win Rate
38%
+180 avg
P&L
-6.17u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.6, α=0.018) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -295 | 7.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.02u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -115 | 11.8% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.20u | BetMGM |
| 8/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +180 | 10.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.97u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | @PIT | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -185 | 8.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.37u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | @PIT | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +120 | 11.0% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.42u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | @PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +240 | 9.7% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +3.30u | BetMGM |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 10.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.38u | Fanatics |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +128 | 17.6% | 3.2 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +4.01u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -148 | 19.2% | 3.2 | 1–5 | 3 | WIN | +3.22u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | STL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -250 | 12.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.68u | BetMGM |
| 7/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -160 | 6.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.07u | BetMGM |
| 7/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +144 | 8.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.10u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +340 | 9.8% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +4.30u | Bovada |
| 7/4/26 | MIL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -130 | 15.2% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.69u | Fanatics |
| 7/4/26 | MIL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +186 | 18.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +5.42u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 16.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +8.29u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | LAA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -128 | 7.4% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.32u | FanDuel |
| 8/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +420 | 10.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.27u | FanDuel |
| 8/2/26 | @CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +950 | 7.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.82u | Fanatics |
| 7/27/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +520 | 8.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.02u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -113 | 14.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.98u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 18.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.59u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +520 | 15.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.81u | FanDuel |
| 7/22/26 | ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1040 | 9.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.05u | DraftKings |
| 7/17/26 | STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -105 | 15.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.23u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +220 | 17.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.48u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +520 | 15.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.80u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1100 | 10.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.09u | Fanatics |
| 7/9/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 7.5% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -0.85u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | MIL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +830 | 11.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.32u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -125 | 15.5% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.49u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +175 | 16.7% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.63u | BetMGM |
| 6/28/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +365 | 14.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.82u | Bovada |
| 6/28/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +770 | 10.4% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.17u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @STL | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -175 | 19.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -5.23u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +103 | 16.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.22u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +241 | 17.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.43u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +545 | 14.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.66u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1200 | 9.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.01u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | @MIA | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -165 | 5.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.42u | BetMGM |
| 8/7/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -130 | 9.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 8/7/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +175 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/7/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +390 | 9.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/7/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +900 | 7.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |