Michael King
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
2.59
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.90
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.02
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.05
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.05
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0075
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0100
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 4.86 | 5 | 0.14 |
| 9/17/26 | 4.78 | 6 | 1.22 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.86 | 4 | 0.86 |
| 9/6/26 | 4.97 | 3 | 1.97 |
| 8/31/26 | 4.96 | 6 | 1.04 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.91 | 7 | 2.09 |
| 8/8/26 | 4.88 | 0 | 4.88 |
| 8/3/26 | 5.11 | 1 | 4.11 |
| 8/2/26 | 4.31 | 1 | 3.31 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.12 | 6 | 0.88 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.12 | 7 | 1.88 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.70 | 1 | 3.70 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.10 | 4 | 1.10 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.13 | 5 | 0.13 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.62 | 0 | 4.62 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.93 | 1 | 3.93 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.86 | 1 | 3.86 |
| 6/10/26 | 5.37 | 3 | 2.37 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.28 | 1 | 4.28 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.94 | 2 | 2.94 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.03 | 0 | 5.03 |