Michael Lorenzen
scrub tier · 3.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
14
MAE
2.10
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.85
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.41
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.59
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.79
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/9/26 | 3.64 | 1 | 2.64 |
| 8/3/26 | 4.42 | 0 | 4.42 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.45 | 2 | 2.45 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.43 | 5 | 0.57 |
| 7/12/26 | 3.89 | 1 | 2.89 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.58 | 5 | 0.42 |
| 7/2/26 | 4.00 | 1 | 3.00 |
| 6/27/26 | 4.13 | 1 | 3.13 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.15 | 5 | 0.85 |
| 6/15/26 | 3.47 | 5 | 1.53 |
| 6/10/26 | 3.66 | 7 | 3.34 |
| 6/3/26 | 3.82 | 5 | 1.18 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.11 | 2 | 2.11 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.12 | 5 | 0.88 |