Michael Wacha
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.78
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.07
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.25
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.19
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.69
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 5.10 | 5 | 0.10 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.95 | 2 | 2.95 |
| 9/8/26 | 5.11 | 4 | 1.11 |
| 9/3/26 | 5.13 | 7 | 1.87 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.09 | 10 | 4.91 |
| 8/11/26 | 5.08 | 5 | 0.08 |
| 8/6/26 | 5.09 | 1 | 4.09 |
| 7/31/26 | 5.18 | 7 | 1.82 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.96 | 3 | 1.96 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.48 | 5 | 0.52 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.97 | 5 | 0.03 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.15 | 7 | 1.85 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.21 | 7 | 1.79 |
| 6/22/26 | 3.62 | 5 | 1.38 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.51 | 3 | 1.51 |
| 6/11/26 | 5.24 | 2 | 3.24 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.25 | 2 | 3.25 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.82 | 5 | 0.18 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.29 | 5 | 0.29 |
| 5/20/26 | 5.23 | 8 | 2.77 |