Look up a pitcher
Bets
39
16W · 23L
Win Rate
41.0%
39.8% break-even (+152)
ROI
+3.09%
profit / wager
P&L
+2.06u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.76
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+0.29
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
14W-6L
Win Rate
70%▲ 59pp
+139 avg
MAE
1.68▼ 0.27
P&L
+26.02u▲ 49.98u
UNDER1 bet
Record
0W-1L
Win Rate
0%
-177 avg
P&L
-1.86u
OVER38 bets
Record
16W-22L
Win Rate
42%
+156 avg
P&L
+3.93u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.1, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/31/26 | @COL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -202 | 9.8% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.47u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +113 | 12.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.66u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +241 | 12.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +4.12u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +506 | 9.4% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +5.73u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -210 | 7.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.13u | BetMGM |
| 7/20/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +110 | 10.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.13u | Fanatics |
| 7/4/26 | PHI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -246 | 5.3% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +0.74u | DraftKings |
| 7/4/26 | PHI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -108 | 7.1% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.37u | DraftKings |
| 7/4/26 | PHI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +220 | 9.7% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +3.11u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | PHI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +450 | 7.4% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +4.07u | Bovada |
| 6/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -235 | 7.1% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.01u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -103 | 9.1% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.79u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +190 | 7.1% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.05u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/27/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +390 | 5.5% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.69u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/22/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -160 | 12.5% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.03u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +135 | 13.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.09u | BetMGM |
| 8/6/26 | MIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -225 | 6.3% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.03u | BetMGM |
| 8/6/26 | MIN | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +100 | 7.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.57u | FanDuel |
| 8/6/26 | MIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 8.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.18u | FanDuel |
| 8/6/26 | MIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +460 | 6.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -0.82u | Fanatics |
| 7/20/26 | SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +240 | 10.3% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.45u | Bovada |
| 7/20/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +525 | 8.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.01u | Bovada |
| 6/22/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +287 | 11.5% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.55u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +620 | 8.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.99u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | @TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -177 | 6.7% | 3.6 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.86u | BetRivers |
| 6/16/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -155 | 15.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.95u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 17.3% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.96u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +300 | 15.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.12u | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +675 | 12.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.45u | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | @WAS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1280 | 7.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.76u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | TEX | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -225 | 5.6% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.83u | BetMGM |
| 6/11/26 | TEX | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +105 | 12.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.35u | BetRivers |
| 6/11/26 | TEX | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +210 | 10.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.57u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | TEX | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +468 | 9.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.16u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | TEX | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1020 | 6.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -0.73u | DraftKings |
| 6/5/26 | @MIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -114 | 7.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.65u | FanDuel |
| 6/5/26 | @MIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -260 | 5.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.01u | Fanatics |
| 6/5/26 | @MIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +190 | 8.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.31u | Fanatics |
| 6/5/26 | @MIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +380 | 6.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -0.82u | DraftKings |