Mike Burrows
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
1.82
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.62
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.09
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.57
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
33
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/6/26 | 4.48 | 3 | 1.48 |
| 6/30/26 | 5.27 | 3 | 2.27 |
| 6/24/26 | 4.46 | 3 | 1.46 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.86 | 5 | 0.14 |
| 6/7/26 | 5.52 | 3 | 2.52 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.43 | 3 | 2.43 |
| 5/27/26 | 5.36 | 6 | 0.64 |
| 5/20/26 | 5.59 | 2 | 3.59 |